The scale: As of December 2, 2025, 40% of the U.S. population, about 137 million people, lived in a Mental Health Professional Shortage Area (HRSA).
HRSA 2038 baseline (status quo) shortfalls:
| Role | Projected shortfall |
|---|---|
| Psychologists | About 99,840 |
| Mental health counselors | About 99,780 |
| Addiction counselors | About 77,050 |
| Adult psychiatrists | About 36,780 |
| Marriage and family therapists | About 33,840 |
| Child and adolescent psychiatrists | About 7,030 |
Higher-demand scenarios widen every gap (unmet need assumes increased demand; elevated need assumes increased demand plus improved access to care). Psychiatric nurse practitioners are the exception under the status quo scenario (108% of demand) but fall to 64% under elevated need.
Rural access: In 2021 data, 69% of rural counties lacked psychiatric mental health nurse practitioners versus 31% of urban counties.
Geriatrics: HRSA projects a 2038 shortage of 1,570 geriatricians.
Practical takeaway: Plan recruiting lead time by role: psychiatry, counseling and psychology show the deepest projected gaps.
Last verified against the cited source on October 30, 2026.
General information, not legal advice. Requirements change; confirm against the official source before you act, or ask us how this applies to your organization.